U.S.-Iran diplomatic path in focus following Trump’s State of the Union address

On February 24, 2026 (U.S. local time), President Donald Trump delivered an address outlining his administration's achievements and policy plans over the past year. A key issue drawing global attention was his foreign policy regarding U.S.-Iran relations, which have been strained since December of last year.

In December 2025, major protests erupted in Iran, primarily led by the merchant class, a core constituency of the Islamic regime. The protests spread rapidly, leading to a violent crackdown by the Iranian government that resulted in more than 3,000 deaths, according to government reports.

Amid the violent suppression, Trump issued a stern declaration: if the Iranian Supreme Leader continued to use violence against protesters, the U.S. would consider using military force to assist the Iranian people. During that period, the U.S. deployed warships and aircraft near Iranian waters.

However, due to the severity of the crackdown and the rising death toll, the Iranian public grew fearful and the protests gradually dispersed. Many analysts believe Trump subsequently lost his legitimate justification or momentum for attacking Iran.

Later, the U.S. moved its naval forces, previously stationed in the Caribbean during the operation to capture former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, to the vicinity of Iranian waters, which was viewed as a signal of Trump's readiness to strike.

U.S.-Iran Agreement

Throughout the year-long tension since Trump took office, a key issue he has pushed is "halting Iran's nuclear weapons development." This matter was recently brought back to the negotiating table with a three-point U.S. proposal: ending uranium enrichment, limiting the development of nuclear-capable ballistic missiles, and ceasing support for regional proxy wars.

The representative from the United Stated, Iran, and Oman ahead of the indirect US-Iran talks, in Geneva, Switzerland, February 17, 2026./ Photo: Iran International

These three points were the primary focus of indirect negotiations between the two parties in Geneva, Switzerland, on February 17, with Oman acting as the mediator. Prior to the talks, Trump stated that if Iran did not agree to all proposals, the U.S. would attack. However, the negotiations ended in a "no-deal" stalemate, and no U.S. attack occurred.

Many analysts believe the U.S. restraint was due to pressure from regional allies concerned that an attack would disrupt oil shipping, given Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz.

Furthermore, an attack on Iran differs from the "swift and effective" strikes the U.S. conducted against Venezuela, as Iran possesses high retaliatory capabilities and would certainly strike back at the U.S.

State of the Union 2026

Trump given a speech at the State of Union 2026./ Photo: OPB

In his address to Congress, Trump stated his foreign policy, specifically U.S.-Iran relations, stating: “Soon, Iran will be able to produce missiles with a range reaching the U.S. However, the U.S. will use diplomatic methods to negotiate with Iran and will not allow the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism to possess nuclear weapons.”

This shift in stance has led analysts to believe Trump has assessed that attacking Iran is extremely difficult due to the potential consequences for both the U.S. and its allies.

Previously, The Washington Post published an article citing recommendations from General Dan Caine, a high-ranking U.S. general, to Trump. He stated that the U.S. lacks sufficient missiles to protect regional allies in the Middle East if Iran launched a distributed swarm attack, as the U.S. had depleted much of its defensive missile stock for Ukraine and Israel. Therefore, it was not an appropriate time to invade.

In response, Trump countered the article, stating he did not attack because he simply did not want to, and that if he had wanted to, he could have "easily won."

February 26 Negotiations: A Historic Opportunity

On February 26 (Swiss local time), the U.S. and Iran will hold another round of indirect negotiations with Oman as the mediator. The objective is to reach a conflict-avoidance agreement.

On February 25, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian expressed a positive outlook on the upcoming talks, seeing a tendency to move past the current state of neither war nor peace.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi/ Photo: AFP

Meanwhile, Abbas Araghchi, the Iranian Foreign Minister leading the negotiations, called the talks a "historic opportunity" and a reachable agreement.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry statement noted that the success of these negotiations depends on the U.S. attitude, specifically how serious they are and to what extent they aim to avoid conflict.

SOURCE: Al Jazeera