"US government shutdown" affects government officials - How would it end?

Photo: Bloomberg

On 1st October 2025, at 12.01 AM local time, the U.S. government entered its first shutdown in six years. The shutdown resulted from a failure by Democratic and Republican senators to reach a timely agreement on the federal budget.

The disagreement over the budget stemmed from the Republican Party’s push to pass a government funding bill aimed at providing temporary relief to keep government agencies running. To pass this bill, the Republicans needed at least 60 votes but held only 53, meaning they required support from Democratic senators.

In response, Democrats leveraged their votes to push forward healthcare policies, including repealing President Trump's order that cut Medicaid funding.

Due to these disagreements, the Senate was unable to negotiate the budget on time, leading to a government shutdown. Both parties blamed one another for causing the situation.

This photo shows the effect of government shutdown towards some of the governmental sectors./ Photo: ABC NEWS

Impact of the Shutdown

Some federal agencies have either limited or ceased services. For example, the U.S. Embassy in Thailand announced it would no longer provide regular updates, except in urgent cases. However, it clarified that it had not completely shut down. Key agencies such as border protection, public health services, law enforcement, and air traffic control are expected to remain operational during the shutdown.

Photo: Facebook (U.S. Embassy Bangkok)

Federal employees are among the hardest hit. So-called "essential workers”, such as air traffic controllers and employees of the Transportation Security Administration (TSA), are required to work without pay. Other federal workers in non-essential roles may be furloughed indefinitely or even face termination.

In terms of investment, a government shutdown could undermine investor confidence in the U.S. economy. Historical data from past shutdowns, which lasted an average of four days, show limited broad economic impact. However, extended shutdowns raise greater concerns.

For the general public, the shutdown could lead to significant delays in services such as passport processing and other federal administrative procedures.

Possible Scenarios

Photo: BBC

According to the BBC News, four main scenarios may unfold as a result of this shutdown:

1. Democrats Break Ranks

Some analysts believe the Democrats' refusal to support the Republican funding bill, which would have kept the government operational until November, may backfire.

Several Democratic senators are up for the election, and there are growing signs that some may break ranks. Concerned about how the shutdown and rising Republican popularity may affect their political futures, a few senators have already expressed discomfort.

If five more Democratic senators cross the aisle, the shutdown could end, regardless of broader party opposition.

2. Democrats Back Down

This scenario stems from increasing pressure on Democrats, as many federal employees who represent a key part of the party’s voter base are directly affected by delayed paychecks and the risk of termination, especially if the Trump administration uses the shutdown to reduce the size of federal agencies.

Typically, the party initiating the shutdown and demanding policy concessions is the first to stop. In this case, that would be the Democrats. If they choose to back down while publicly reaffirming their policy goals, the party could emerge with a stronger political position despite making concessions.

3. Republicans Concede

Currently, Republicans believe they hold the upper hand and are applying pressure on Democrats. However, they may be miscalculating.

Past government shutdowns have typically been associated with the Republican Party, and the public may again place the blame on them, especially if they are perceived as going too far in their efforts to cut government spending.

In this scenario, Republicans could agree to some Democratic demands, such as extending health-insurance subsidies. Although Republicans have firmly stated they will not "negotiate with budget hostage-takers," internal divisions within the party on this issue suggest that compromise remains a possibility.

4. Prolonged Shutdown, Both Parties Lose

If the hostile rhetoric and mutual animosity continue, and neither party is willing to open negotiations, the damage may ultimately fall on both.

In this scenario, public trust in both parties erodes. Voters may reject candidates from either side in the next election, opening the door for "a new generation of politicians" promising to "shake up the system" and bring about political reform.

SOURCE: BBC

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