Global Political Turmoil, U.S. Tariff on Thailand, Through the Perspective of 'Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pongphisoot’

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pongphisoot Busbarat, a faculty member of the Department of International Relations, Chulalongkorn University./ Photo: SAP News

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Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pongphisoot said that Thailand is in a "Dilemma" situation after its foreign policy strategy became unclear, compounded by a heavy 36% tariff by the US.

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3rd April 2025, SAP News interviewed Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pongphisoot Busbarat, a faculty member of the Department of International Relations, Chulalongkorn University, to gain his perspective on Thailand’s current status in relation to the fierce global politics and economy.

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Thailand is facing 'Dilemma' among tension between world's superpowers./ Photo: Asia Times

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How will Thailand position itself after the global order is disrupted?

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Pongphisoot said that Thailand has been trying to build various collaborations, such as joining the BRICS group, FTA with the European Union. However, there is still a lack of clarity in several strategic areas, which poses risks on multiple fronts regarding its stance.

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"It is an advantage to have multiple options and to promote trade, but the disadvantage is the lack of a clear strategic stance, which may damage Thailand’s image in terms of positioning on the global stage. However, amidst the conflicts of the major powers, Thailand must demonstrate a position that aligns with international rules and standards, without clearly signaling support for one side or the other," he said.

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He also revealed that Thailand has not yet reached a point where it must choose sides, as it is not in a state of war. For example, during World War II, Thailand clearly chose sides, which marked the beginning of following the world order led by Western countries and the US.

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On the other hand, Thailand must also consider its own benefits, which at this moment, prevents it from fully choosing sides, as it could lead to disadvantages. It is necessary to take a balanced approach and navigate carefully.

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In the context of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, it depends on how many skilled negotiators there are to deal with the major powers. However, if the role in political implementation is too dominant, it may cause Thailand to become dependent on major powers to solve various issues. An example of this is solving the problem of call center fraud from China through the Thai government.

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U.S. President Donald Trump holds up a chart while speaking during a “Make America Wealthy Again” trade announcement event in the Rose Garden at the White House on April 2, 2025 in Washington, D.C./ Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

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Trump hits Thailand hard with a 36% tariff hike

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In the case where U.S. President Donald Trump issued an executive order to impose "reciprocal tariffs" on several countries, including both competitors and allies of the United States, Trump revealed that Thailand imposes a 72% tariff on U.S. goods. As a result, Thailand faces a 36% tariff hike on its exports to the US.

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Pongphisoot revealed that this figure far exceeded expectations, as U.S. politics has led Trump to prioritize America's interests, focusing on countries with a trade surplus with the U.S., and Thailand is one of them.

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The figure of 72% that Thailand imposes on U.S. goods is estimated to be an average across all types of products that Thailand imports.

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Thailand is a production hub for automotive products, rubber, electrical appliances, and various consumer goods, with the US being one of its top export markets.

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Americans will need to prepare for the impact of the tariff hike, which includes higher inflation and more expensive goods due to the increased cost of imported products from abroad.

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He concluded that Thailand is still unprepared for the U.S. tariff hike, and it is clear that the government has not considered the worst-case scenario. Thailand remains unready to respond to a severe backlash from the United States.

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Thailand needs to immediately develop a strategic plan to negotiate a reduction in tariff rates with the US. This could involve measures such as exchanging goods and reducing imports from the U.S., such as negotiating the leasing or purchasing of aircraft from the U.S. and increasing the purchase of U.S. agricultural products, among others.

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However, finding alternative markets is equally important, even in a "catch-22" situation, as almost every country faces tariff walls. Therefore, it is necessary to explore diverse channels for selling products, such as the Middle East, Africa, and others.